Calculated Risk: YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2025 08:49:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.8% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through June 2025.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were up 0.6% YoY as of June 2025, up from unchanged YoY in May.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.6% YoY in June, up from 0.3% YoY in May.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through June) and housing from the PCE report (through May)

Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May. Housing (PCE) was up 4.1% YoY in June, down from 4.2% in May.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.1% YoY in June, up from 1.9% in May.