Economics

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 07:43:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report Today’s movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning. The average lender remains close enough to Friday’s levels but is technically just a hair higher. That […]

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 02:31:00 PM The Consumer Price Index for May is scheduled to be released tomorrow. The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.6% year-over-year and

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 11:26:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025? A brief excerpt: Most forecasts for 2025 were for U.S. house prices to increase modestly in the 3% to 4% range. My early view was “mostly flat prices nationally in 2025” with some

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.7% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 35.6% from the seasonal bottom in January and will likely be mostly flat over the summer.    Usually, inventory is up about 20% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025

From WSJ July survey out today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), lowest/highest 10% based on 2025 q4/q4 growth (gray lines), GDPNow of 7/9 (inverted light blue triangle), NY Fed nowcast of 7/11 (red square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and author’s calculations. Only one

As of today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 7/9 (light blue inverted triangle), NY Fed nowcast of 7/11 (red square), St. Louis Fed news nowcast of 7/11 (light green triangle), Goldman Sachs of 7/11 (pink x), FT Booth June survey median (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta, NY, St. Louis

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June • July ICE Mortgage Monitor:

See here and here. Every morning I wake up, think I can’t see anything more crazy than what occurred yesterday, and then I check the news. Figure 1: Top panel, EPU-trade; Middle panel: Trade Policy Uncertainty; Bottom panel: EPU. Orange shading denotes second Trump administration. Orange dashed line denotes election. Source: policyuncertainty.com, Iacoviello et al.

Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS): Figure 1: USD shares of fx  (blue bars), EUR (tan), all other (gray). USD(EUR) share assumes 60%(35%) of unallocated reserves are in USD(EUR). Source: IMF COFER, and author’s calculations.  The drop in USD reserves out of total FX reserves is not apparent. However, gold has taken on a heightened