Economics

See here and here. Every morning I wake up, think I can’t see anything more crazy than what occurred yesterday, and then I check the news. Figure 1: Top panel, EPU-trade; Middle panel: Trade Policy Uncertainty; Bottom panel: EPU. Orange shading denotes second Trump administration. Orange dashed line denotes election. Source: policyuncertainty.com, Iacoviello et al. […]

Based on IMF data (COFER, IFS): Figure 1: USD shares of fx  (blue bars), EUR (tan), all other (gray). USD(EUR) share assumes 60%(35%) of unallocated reserves are in USD(EUR). Source: IMF COFER, and author’s calculations.  The drop in USD reserves out of total FX reserves is not apparent. However, gold has taken on a heightened

From Cleveland Fed today: Figure 1: Year on year core CPI inflation (blue), core PCE (tan), Bloomberg consensus of 7/11 (teal triangle). June, July 2025 observations are Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of 7/11. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg. This entry was posted on July 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 03:55:00 PM From Nick Villa at Moody’s The Office Sector’s Double Whammy The ongoing challenges affecting the office sector have not only resulted in deteriorating space market fundamentals—evidenced by the record-high national office vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2025—but have also had a direct negative impact on capital

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 11:40:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [July 11th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.7%. [July

by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 08:26:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June A brief excerpt: Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged 6.73% in April and 6.82% in

Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, manufacturing production, real retail sales, ADP’s private NFP, and BTS freight services index. The sole exception is the Philadelphia Fed coincident index, based on labor indicators. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls adjusted to NFP concept (orange), manufacturing production

From Yale Budget Lab: Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 10 July 2025.