Economics

From Yale Budget Lab: Source: Yale Budget Lab, accessed 10 July 2025.    

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 04:47:00 PM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands 7% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 6.8% in June to 225.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised May reading of 210.9. Over the month, commercial planning grew 7.3% while institutional planning improved 5.7%.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 02:19:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 July. … 29 June through 5 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 61.1% (-0.4%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.71 (-0.9%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$95.80 (-1.3%)emphasis added

Here’s the data through 7/9: Figure 1: EPU-trade category (blue, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty index (red, right scale). Source: Baker, Bloom & Davis policyuncertainty.com, and Caldara et al. TPUD. For 7/9, it’s 4110. Pre-Trump 1.0 average is 102. Copper prices? This entry was posted on July 10, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 11:09:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending July 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,500,

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2025 08:17:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 235 thousand from 233 thousand last week.

From Orrenius et al. (2025), GDP growth is down 0.81% in 2026, 0.49% in 2027. These estimates based on a VAR(2) using annual data, net unauthorized immigration as a percent of the previous-year U.S. population,  annual growth rate of nonfarm payroll employment, the PCE annual inflation rate, and yearly GDP growth. Source: Orrenius et al.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2025 01:22:00 PM This data is as of July 8, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for the last 6 years. Air travel is essentially unchanged YoY (7-day average up about 1.8% YoY). The red line

by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2025 06:43:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of June 17-18