Economics

ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect? Figure 1: First log difference of private NFP employment from BLS […]

+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K. Figure 1: Private NFP, May release (black), June release (red), nowcast using ADP (light blue square), +/- 1 standard error (gray +). Source: BLS, author’s calculations (see text). This entry was posted on July 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP flat over the last six months through May, many key indicators followed by the NBER  Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) are flat or falling (although NBER places primary emphasis on employment, which

Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0): Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), GDPNow of 6/27 (light blue square), of 7/3 (dark blue square), Goldman Sachs of 7/3 (red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations. If final sales to domestic private purchasers

A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”. Global central banks bought a net 20t in May, based on reported data, close to but still below the 12-month average of 27t. Fresh tensions in the Middle East may have reinforced the strategic appeal of gold for central banks looking to safeguard