FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Production of 2025 main season maize crop anticipated slightly above average
- Aggregate 2024 maize output estimated below average reflecting low prices at planting times and adverse weather conditions
- Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 marketing year anticipated below average
- Prices of white maize increased in the second quarter of 2025 in line with seasonal trends
Production of 2025 main season maize crop anticipated slightly above average
The 2025 main season maize crop, accounting for about 80 percent of the annual production, is currently at development stage and harvesting is expected to start in September. Farmers delayed the start of planting operations by about one month due to below‑average and erratic precipitations at the beginning of the rainy season in May. Increased rainfall amounts in June improved soil moisture levels, allowing planting and providing favourable conditions for germination and early development of crops. However, in the coastal regions, where sowing started regularly in May, torrential rains and localized floodings in June caused some losses of germinating maize crops which required to be replanted. Weather forecasts for the August to October period point to average to slightly below-average rainfall amounts, providing conducive conditions for crop maturation and harvesting operations.
Planted area of the 2025 main maize crop is expected at a slightly above‑average level, rebounding from the previous year’s low acreage. The increase is mainly due to a 10 percent year‑on‑year increase in white maize prices, combined with the extension of the zero‑import tariff on main agricultural inputs until 2026 that eased production costs.
Aggregate 2024 maize output estimated below average reflecting low prices at planting times and adverse weather conditions
On aggregate, the 2024 cereal production was estimated at 770 million tonnes, slightly below the previous five‑year average, although higher than the 2023 low level. Adverse dry weather conditions at the beginning of the main season and lower year‑on‑year prices discouraged farmers’ sowing intentions, resulting in a below‑average planted area. Moreover, erratic precipitation at the end of 2024 exerted a negative impact on the development of the minor season crop, curbing crop yields.
Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 marketing year anticipated below average
In the 2024/25 marketing year (September/August), cereal import requirements are estimated at 1.07million tonnes, about 4percent below the previous five‑year average, after growing continuously for four consecutive years. The decline is mainly due to ample carryover stocks from the large imports of maize (both yellow and white) and wheat in 2022/23 and 2023/24. In addition, in the case of yellow maize, export demand from Brazil was reduced by the Brazilian real appreciation against the USdollar from the start of 2025, which made imports from Brazil costlier.
Prices of white maize increased in the second quarter of 2025 in line with seasonal trends
After a period of moderate stability from October 2024 to March 2025, wholesale prices of white maize increased continuously in the second quarter of 2025, driven by the low seasonal availability and reduced year‑on‑year import volumes since the beginning of the year. Moreover, the tight supply from the below‑average harvest in 2024 kept prices in March2025 over 20percent above their level of one year earlier. After a declining trend since September2024, prices of red beans remained nearly unchanged month‑on‑month in June2025, and were about 9percent lower than one year earlier, reflecting ample supply from improved year‑on‑year import amounts. Wholesale wheat prices were nearly unchanged since the beginning of 2025, on account of good market supply and, as of June 2025, they were similar to the value a year before. Annual food inflation rate exhibited negative values since October 2024 , reaching a negative 1.44percent in June2025.
