The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 provides a comprehensive assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels.
Key trends include rising consumption of animal-source foods, mainly by a growing, more affluent and urbanised population in middle-income countries. Global agricultural and fish production is expected to increase by 14% over the next decade, mainly enabled by productivity growth, particularly in middle-income countries. Productivity gains will contribute to reducing emission intensity and limit the expected increase of direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions to 6%.
Scenario simulations indicate that the elimination of undernourishment globally by 2034 can go hand in hand with a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 7% if combined investments are made in emission-reduction technologies and in a 15% productivity increase in agriculture.
A rules-based trade system remains essential for global food security and rural livelihoods. Real international reference prices are expected to maintain a slightly declining trend, pressuring smallholders to improve productivity in order to stay competitive.
